Yerevan, 22.February.2024,
Unibank is now a regular partner of “Pan-Armenian intellectual movement” IDBank issued another tranche of dollar bonds Green Iphone on the best credit terms at green operator's stores UCOM Provided technical assistance to Shengavit administrative district AMD 9,808,684 to the "City of Smile" Charitable Foundation. The next beneficiary of "The Power of One Dram" is known Unibank offers a “Special” business loan with an interest rate of 8.5% per annum IDBank implements the next issue of nominal coupon bonds Flyone Armenia will start operating regular direct flights Yerevan-Moscow-Yerevan New movie channels in Ucom and good news for unity tariff subscribers Ucom offers discounts on a number of devices on the occasion of love holidays

Nagorno-Karabakh: Rehearsal for an upcoming war?


Recent clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh region - an occupied Azerbaijani territory according to four United Nations Security Councilresolutions - have claimed the lives of more than 30 from both sides. At the time of writing, Azerbaijan declared a unilateral ceasefire.

In military terms, it would be fair to say that Baku and Yerevan would not go into an all-out war.

However, a warlike rehearsal through skirmishes and the trajectory of the recent clashes hinted at what the next war between Azerbaijan and Armenia would look like.

In such a case, the Azerbaijanis would rely on rapid combined-arms offensives to achieve decisive results swiftly, while the Armenian defence planners would attempt to hold on to their topographically advantageous defensive lines and launch small-scale counter-offensives to regain lost positions immediately.

Russia would pretend to be a peace-mediator, while supporting the Armenian defence through the back door.

Finally, Turkish public opinion would strongly side with Azerbaijan, and Ankara would play a supportive yet cautious role.

Beyond the 'usual' tensions

Apparently, the recent round of skirmishes presents a different case from the "usual" tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Although casualty reports of the two parties' officials differ, they overlap on the military equipment that was used. Both sides reported helicopters, main battle tanks, and other armoured vehicles with artillery support being involved in the engagements.


From a military standpoint, the clashes are tantamount to what modern doctrines call "combined-arms operations". The course of action is based on a sophisticated use of different military assets through a simultaneous and synchronised operational way in order to achieve what "each arm" could not accomplish separately.

Therefore, "arms" on the battleground compensate for each other's vulnerabilities, while providing unique advantages to advance.

In a simplified tactical scenario, tanks provide manoeuvring and protection advantage to infantry, while the infantry protects tanks from anti-tank systems. Simultaneously, artillery pins down enemy formations while attack helicopters hunt down enemy tanks to pave the ground for an armoured offensive.

Notably, combined arms operations cannot be compared with sniper fire-exchange over contact lines. They are conducted to achieve decisive and destructive results swiftly. Clearly, at strategic level, this type of operation aims to change control of terrain.

Severity of the military option

A key detail about the strategic balance in Nagorno-Karabakh came into the picture when the Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan announced casualties, without specifying whether the fallen troops belonged to the local militia of Karabakh or the Armenian military.

This was a small but critical detail, as for some time Azerbaijani military analysts have been focusing on distinguishing the Armenian casualties resulting from the border clashes. In this regard, Azerbaijanis argued that the majority of the Armenian losses were from Armenia rather than the local armed elements.


Therefore, Baku anticipates a significant decrease in available manpower of the de facto Armenian administration in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Moreover, the Armenian army - mainly relying on conscription and having severe shortages to finance its armement - has been facing significant modernisation problems in recent years.

Coupled with the manpower problems of the Armenian side, the overall military balance has been shifting in favour of Baku in recent years. The only exception in this regard would be the decreasing oil prices that would affect Azerbaijani military modernisation. 

On the other side of the border, the Azerbaijani National Security Concept, which was approved by President Ilham Aliyev in 2007, openly states that a settlement with Armenia could be achieved only under a complete withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied territories and full restoration of Azerbaijan's sovereignty.


In tandem, the current military doctrine of Azerbaijan, which was adopted in 2010, underlines the right to exert military force to regain Nagorno-Karabakh.

Thus, Baku's actions are stemming from the very fact that the Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied territories issue remains well beyond realpolitik-driven parameters.

Rather, it constitutes a vital component of the Azerbaijani strategic culture as the top security agenda and matter of pride for the nation. In other words, the military option is really on the table for Baku.

Russia and Turkey factor

At this point, the primary drawback of the Aliyev administration is stemming from the risk of igniting a regional conflict in which Russia would support Yerevan.

Russia has a formidable bastion in Armenia equipped with strategic weapon systems. Furthermore, Moscow and Yerevan have recently signed a joint air defence agreement.

From a broader perspective, the Russia factor appears more complicated than "simply" a military alliance with Armenia.

For a long time, Moscow has been exploiting protracted conflicts, be it Nagorno-Karabakh or South Ossetia, to maintain grounds for its military presence in the former Soviet Union territories, while these deployments prolong the protracted conflicts, generating a vicious cycle.

Moreover, although Russia's lucrative arms sales to Azerbaijan and its military alliance with Armenia might seem contradictory, such a course of action even bolsters the aforementioned situation.

During the clashes, Turkish public opinion showed a strong solidarity with Azerbaijan due to the shared national identity. Yet, it seems, Ankara would still avoid a regional war, and opt for capacity-building measures to support its ally.

Can Kasapoglu is a defence analyst at the Istanbul-based think-tank the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM).

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.

Interview with Chairman of BOGG PLC Mel CarvillGet 5% cashback on your AMIO digital card! Get 5% cashback on your AMIO digital card! Book Giving Day in Khnko Aper Library. IDBankTransfer your loan and take benefit of the 1.5% low interest refinancing offer AraratBank Donates to Regional Libraries: BOOKS FOR ALLAmeriabank set to join BOGG, a London Stock Exchange (LSE) listed financial group as a standalone entity Which Book to Choose as a Gift for the Book Giving Day? A Piece of Advice from Idram and IDBankAMIO BANK will start the leasing process in the immediate future Fast Bank has received a Mastercard membership license Two new sports channels in Ucom's uTV channel list A bunch of smiles in the city. "Artsakh" branch of AMIO BANK has been reopened A network ready for the transition to 5G and qualitatively new television. Ucom signed official agreements with Nokia and MediaKind How to Celebrate Love Days? A Piece of Advice from Idram and IDBank Visa Travel card - your best friend of the road Ardshinbank announces agreement to acquire HSBC Armenia Fastex to Provide up to 5 Million $FTN to the “Olympionic” Sports Foundation AMD 3,665,972 to Armenian Mothers. In February, Cancer Awareness Month, The Power of One Dram will be directed to the City of Smile Ambassadors accredited to Armenia, Galaxy Group and Ucom leaders spoke at the largest event of the European Business Association Idplus Digital Fuel Cards: Everyone Makes a Plus Ameriabank is the Largest Taxpayer Among Armenian BanksThe Director General of Ucom delivered a lecture at the School of Ethics New promotion from AMIO BANK for international SWIFT transfers Pay for the Parking with Idram with One Click IDBank’s Davtashen Branch Is Waiting for Customers After Renovation "United and caring". Ucom participated in the collaborative charity initiative of Galaxy Group of Companies and Armenian Red Cross Society About 5,000 families forcibly displaced from Artsakh received 100 tons of aid from Galaxy Group of CompaniesConverse Bank for the fifth time in a row is recognized as the best by Global Finance The announcement on the complete allocation of "Euroterm" bonds ahead of schedule.Ucom and SunChild NGO Power Aghavnadzor Kindergarten for Year-Round Operation Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum Combine has invested more than 5 billion AMD in social development projects in 2023Ralph Yirikian, Director General of Ucom, congratulated the forcibly displaced children from Artsakh living in Tavush and Vayots Dzor with New Year’s giftsThe amount of 3.945.010 AMD to the Health Fund for Children of Armenia. The power of one dram for January will go to “Armenian Mothers” fundARARATBANK attracts USD 5 million from EFSE to support MSMEs in ArmeniaThe Christmas gift from the Galaxy Group of Companies is the restoration of a song extricated by Khrimian HayrikGalaxy Group of Companies replaced the traditional New Year's gifts with houses of kindness and peace crafted by the children of Artsakh The contribution of Ucom company and SunChild NGO to the Goghtanik settlement AraratBank named the Best CSR Bank in Armenia 2023 The Christmas Miracle in Shirak Region - Ameriabank Santas Visited Children from Artsakh Ruben Vardanyan's arrest is a message to the entire Armenian world and the Armenian people. It is a wake-up call for the Armenian dignityIdram, IDBank and Hayordi for the children of ArtsakhLeadership of Galaxy Group of Companies Summarized 2023Ucom Attains Prestigious ISO 27001 Certification for Information Security Excellence Ucom’s fixed network is already available in Sevan A solar plant in Rind settlement was launched as a result of the cooperation between Ucom and SunChild NGOMoody’s upgrades IDBank’s long-term deposit ratings to B1, changes outlook to positive How Ameriabank continued to deliver success amid the volatility of the global markets Ucom's New Year's parade continues. the new offer has already started The public movement "Zang" issued a statement that they were subjected to violence while carrying out a civil protest Ucom and Smartcom gifted smartwatches and uKid application services to COAF SMART Center children